Conference Guide

It's Not Survivorship Bias
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0:00Thanks to Abner
0:00Thanks to Abner
0:00Thanks to Abner
0:10My Background
0:10My Background
0:10My Background
0:35I'm here to share an idea
0:35I'm here to share an idea
0:35I'm here to share an idea
0:47A Quick Story
0:47A Quick Story
0:47A Quick Story
0:49About a year ago… discovering Choo-Choo Charles1
0:49About a year ago… discovering Choo-Choo Charles1
0:49About a year ago… discovering Choo-Choo Charles1
1:33This got a lot of attention…
1:33This got a lot of attention…
1:33This got a lot of attention…
1:45Some Context On Steam
1:45Some Context On Steam
1:45Some Context On Steam
3:01Steam is Competitive
3:01Steam is Competitive
3:01Steam is Competitive
3:50Steam Releases 20212
3:50Steam Releases 20212
3:50Steam Releases 20212
4:57Choo-Choo Charles, #32 in wishlists3
4:57Choo-Choo Charles, #32 in wishlists3
4:57Choo-Choo Charles, #32 in wishlists3
5:22So, what was my reaction to all of this?
5:22So, what was my reaction to all of this?
5:22So, what was my reaction to all of this?
6:00Two Star Games' on Steam4
6:00Two Star Games' on Steam4
6:00Two Star Games' on Steam4
6:16My Beautiful Paper Smile5
6:16My Beautiful Paper Smile5
6:16My Beautiful Paper Smile5
7:09Two Star Games' YouTube Channel6
7:09Two Star Games' YouTube Channel6
7:09Two Star Games' YouTube Channel6
7:42So, to recap the story…
7:42So, to recap the story…
7:42So, to recap the story…
8:07Most things aren't random
8:07Most things aren't random
8:07Most things aren't random
8:39Estimating the Viability of an Indie Game Idea
8:39Estimating the Viability of an Indie Game Idea
8:39Estimating the Viability of an Indie Game Idea
8:46Let's look at some numbers
8:46Let's look at some numbers
8:46Let's look at some numbers
9:32Steam Releases 2021 Estimated Revenue
9:32Steam Releases 2021 Estimated Revenue
9:32Steam Releases 2021 Estimated Revenue
10:11Steam Releases 2021 Estimated Revenue (>= 10 reviews only)
10:11Steam Releases 2021 Estimated Revenue (>= 10 reviews only)
10:11Steam Releases 2021 Estimated Revenue (>= 10 reviews only)
10:23Wait a second
10:23Wait a second
10:23Wait a second
11:00Opposite Approach: Analysis oriented around Way of Rhea7
11:00Opposite Approach: Analysis oriented around Way of Rhea7
11:00Opposite Approach: Analysis oriented around Way of Rhea7
11:29Let's see what's out there
11:29Let's see what's out there
11:29Let's see what's out there
11:32Let's see what's out there: 2021 releases (9,906 games)
11:32Let's see what's out there: 2021 releases (9,906 games)
11:32Let's see what's out there: 2021 releases (9,906 games)
11:45Let's see what's out there: "puzzle" & "2d" (1,212 games)
11:45Let's see what's out there: "puzzle" & "2d" (1,212 games)
11:45Let's see what's out there: "puzzle" & "2d" (1,212 games)
12:02Let's see what's out there: >= $5 (410 games)
12:02Let's see what's out there: >= $5 (410 games)
12:02Let's see what's out there: >= $5 (410 games)
12:08Let's see what's out there: >= 10 reviews (225 games)
12:08Let's see what's out there: >= 10 reviews (225 games)
12:08Let's see what's out there: >= 10 reviews (225 games)
13:10Let's see what's out there: "puzzle" top tag (161 games)
13:10Let's see what's out there: "puzzle" top tag (161 games)
13:10Let's see what's out there: "puzzle" top tag (161 games)
13:37Let's see what's out there: manual filter (46 games)
13:37Let's see what's out there: manual filter (46 games)
13:37Let's see what's out there: manual filter (46 games)
14:15Let's see what's out there: Sort by estimated revenue
14:15Let's see what's out there: Sort by estimated revenue
14:15Let's see what's out there: Sort by estimated revenue
14:37Let's see what's out there: Are revenues random?
14:37Let's see what's out there: Are revenues random?
14:37Let's see what's out there: Are revenues random?
15:46Let's see what's out there: Can we compete in our bracket?
15:46Let's see what's out there: Can we compete in our bracket?
15:46Let's see what's out there: Can we compete in our bracket?
16:32This Still Isn't Actionable
16:32This Still Isn't Actionable
16:32This Still Isn't Actionable
16:56Rogue-like Deck-builder Case Study
16:56Rogue-like Deck-builder Case Study
16:56Rogue-like Deck-builder Case Study
17:28Rogue-like Deck-builder Case Study: GameDataCrunch8
17:28Rogue-like Deck-builder Case Study: GameDataCrunch8
17:28Rogue-like Deck-builder Case Study: GameDataCrunch8
18:04Rogue-like Deck-builder Case Study: So, is the idea viable?
18:04Rogue-like Deck-builder Case Study: So, is the idea viable?
18:04Rogue-like Deck-builder Case Study: So, is the idea viable?
18:42Rogue-like Deck-builder Case Study: The difference in perspective is stark
18:42Rogue-like Deck-builder Case Study: The difference in perspective is stark
18:42Rogue-like Deck-builder Case Study: The difference in perspective is stark
19:01Game Genre Median Earnings vs Number Released since 20199
19:01Game Genre Median Earnings vs Number Released since 20199
19:01Game Genre Median Earnings vs Number Released since 20199
19:44Genres Matter
19:44Genres Matter
19:44Genres Matter
20:07Providing Value
20:07Providing Value
20:07Providing Value
20:10What top Steam genres have in common…
20:10What top Steam genres have in common…
20:10What top Steam genres have in common…
20:46It sounds obvious but… People exchange money for value
20:46It sounds obvious but… People exchange money for value
20:46It sounds obvious but… People exchange money for value
21:33Consider the overlap of the stuff that excites you and stuff people want to give you money for
21:33Consider the overlap of the stuff that excites you and stuff people want to give you money for
21:33Consider the overlap of the stuff that excites you and stuff people want to give you money for
22:35"But I'm an artist"
22:35"But I'm an artist"
22:35"But I'm an artist"
22:52Don the beret
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22:52Don the beret
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22:52Don the beret
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23:00"But I'm an artist" (cont.)
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23:00"But I'm an artist" (cont.)
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23:00"But I'm an artist" (cont.)
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23:50Quick poll: How many of you are working for a tech company?
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23:50Quick poll: How many of you are working for a tech company?
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23:50Quick poll: How many of you are working for a tech company?
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24:18Quick poll: How many of you like the tech company you're working for?
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24:18Quick poll: How many of you like the tech company you're working for?
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24:18Quick poll: How many of you like the tech company you're working for?
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24:31Again, consider the overlap of the stuff that excites you and stuff people want to give you money for
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24:31Again, consider the overlap of the stuff that excites you and stuff people want to give you money for
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24:31Again, consider the overlap of the stuff that excites you and stuff people want to give you money for
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25:43Why this talk?
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25:43Why this talk?
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25:43Why this talk?
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26:48"It's not survivorship bias!"
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26:48"It's not survivorship bias!"
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26:48"It's not survivorship bias!"
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27:29The Handmade Ethos
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27:29The Handmade Ethos
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27:29The Handmade Ethos
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28:43Come say hi at my booth, or find me online!10,11,12,13,14
28:43Come say hi at my booth, or find me online!10,11,12,13,14
28:43Come say hi at my booth, or find me online!10,11,12,13,14